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Diabetes Care, Vol 22, Issue 11 1796-1801, Copyright © 1999 by American Diabetes Association
Optimized autoantibody-based risk assessment in family members. Implications for future intervention trials
PJ Bingley, AJ Williams and EA Gale
Division of Medicine, University of Bristol, U.K. polly.bingley@bristol.ac.uk
OBJECTIVE: To determine the best autoantibody-based testing strategy for
recruiting relatives for future intervention trials and to establish the
role of islet cell antibodies (ICAs) within this strategy. RESEARCH DESIGN
AND METHODS: ICAs, insulin autoantibodies (IAAs), GAD antibodies, and IA-2
antibodies were determined in serum samples at study entry of 3,655
non-diabetic first-degree relatives of patients with type 1 diabetes who
were followed for a median of 5.5 years. The cumulative risk of diabetes
associated with single and combined antibody marker levels of > or =
97.5th percentile in schoolchildren was calculated by using life-table
analysis. RESULTS: Of the 26 relatives who developed insulin-requiring
diabetes during follow-up, 16 were aged < 20 years and 7 were aged 20-39
years at study entry. Of the 23 cases aged < 40 years, 83% had IA-2
and/or GAD antibodies, and 87% had IAA and/or GAD antibodies > or =
97.5th percentile compared with 61% who had ICAs of > or = 5 Juvenile
Diabetes Foundation units (JDF U). A two-step strategy with parallel
testing for IA-2/GAD antibodies followed by IAA testing identified 50% of
cases aged < 20 years and was associated with a 71% risk within 10
years. In subjects aged 20-39 years, this strategy conferred a 51% risk,
whereas using ICAs as the second test gave 86% sensitivity and a 74% risk.
Primary screening for IA-2 and/or GAD antibodies followed by testing for
IAA and/or ICA antibodies achieved the highest sensitivity in both
age-groups and conferred a 63% risk. In contrast, ICAs of > or = 20 JDF
U (the inclusion criteria for the European Nicotinamide Diabetes
Intervention Trial) gave 48% sensitivity and 35% risk. CONCLUSIONS: ICA
testing can be replaced as a primary screening measure by IA-2/GAD or
IAA/GAD antibody testing. The sensitivity of ICAs (used alone or in
combination with IAAs) gives them a useful role in second-line testing.
Combination testing could reduce the size of screening populations needed
for recruitment in future intervention trials by approximately 50% compared
with testing based on ICAs alone.

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Copyright © 1999 by the American Diabetes Association.
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